Southwest Airlines is reportedly weighing a Boeing 787 order of dozens of jets, signaling it may finally be edging closer to launching long haul international flights.
Obviously their first long haul destination will be Singapore as a way of growing their recent weird nonsensical partnership with SQ.
One has to wonder - we now have 6 primary US carriers trying to be all things to all places to all people. Is there enough market to sustain all that business? Highly unlikely.
Six? UA AA DL … then WN & AS/HA … that’s five network carriers at most. However, historically we had far more: TW US NW PA WA CO EA … and although consolidation whittled that number down, more competition probably isn’t a bad thing for the consumer.
I was referring to JetBlue as the 6th - also now flying internationally. Personally I do consider them a major US carrier.
And including them in my comparison as they’re now trying to do it all:
- Domestic 1st
- Lounges
- International
Southwest has a long history of doing nothing fast. If this were to happen… it would be years down the road. It seems to take leaders, years to come together, let alone make a decision. Their leadership team also does not listen to its people any longer. There’s a lot of listening they need to do and a lot of cultural sensitivity training as well
training crews how to serve an international crowd on an overseas flight. They don’t emphasize teamwork in the cabin when it comes to service. 4 flight attendants doing the same job differently in each section will NOT work on a widebody. It barely works on a 737! Much work needs to be done on every aspect of swa flying a new aircraft type anywhere overseas! It can be done, and I hope it is… however they will need to bring in people to train and they need to let go of the idea of making it “uniquely Southwest”! That term send shivers down spines
That’s how I feel about this announcement. Southwest has promised lounges, domestic first recliners, and now wide-bodies; in reality, they’ve basically only removed free bags and started charging and assigning seats… meanwhile, competitors like AS, B6 actually getting it done (new lounges, BlueFirst, etc.)
BWI to HNL would probably be a 787 route. HNL to the west coast cities that could accommodate the 787 would also be potential routes.
Southwest wanting to be Alaska wanting to be American.
As I said they would, WN is quickly pivoting to be a mirror image of the big 3 because that is the only model that financially works in the US.
WN has seen positive results from its first round of initiatives to walk away from its legacy strategies even at the cost of "firing" a bunch of former customers. Lounges are the next big initiative for WN to roll out.
Adding a domestic first class product was always going to take much more time and investment than assigned seating and extra legroom cabins.
The 787 always had the advantage at WN because of the massive amounts of customer compensation that WN has received for delayed aircraft over the years. International aircraft are always going to be a separate operation for a US airline so there is much less risk of additional complexity.
and then you have to ask if the US can really support four legacy like airlines all chasing the same market but WN has the advantage of the industry's best balance sheet and a long track record of financially winning under their old model. It might be the early 2030s before we see catchup and mustard on a stick 787s but it will mark the culmination of one of the biggest pivots in US corporate history
Tim, you did say this would happen, and someday it might, but until it actually happens, this, like their talks of lounges and recliners (all of which requires a lot of capital and time), is just talk. Until then, it seems WN is only good at adding new fees (bags, seats, etc.)
kind of like Starlink on AA or the UA offering free Starlink on every aircraft serving even one global region of the world?
Who in their right mind would pick WN over AF when flying BNA-CDG?
Indeed, WN wanting to be AS, wanting to be AA.
Southwest is a cattle car hauler of mid-level management and middle class Americans from point to point in the US, and the occasional beach market.
It is not a global carrier. The idea of it becoming one is laughable since its customer base is the one likely most squeezed financially by the Trump regime's idiotic, destructive and foolish domestic policies.
Mid level? SWA is the blue collar airline. It is the Greyhound bus of the air. Fancy a ten hour flight with them?
I’m curious where it would be from. BWI and BNA? Agree Denver is probably too far West. And destination wise do we think it’s basically just Europe? Any Asia or South America?
Baltimore is the logical jumping off point for Europe for WN has a significant presence there. However, Euro travel is based on connections which WN will need to brush up on to make it successful. That’s why B6’s operations to Europe have not brought the revenue once projected due to the focus on point to point as opposed to connections. B6 relied too much on the immediate NYC and BOS markets which have not panned out.
Next for WN is an airline alliance. Alaska already has OneWorld and tagged teamed with AA. B6 is God Damn Independent (GDI), but the writing is on the wall with UA & Star. Best for WN to cozy up to SkyTeam with the blessing of DL. Just like B6, there is no success in Europe without an alliance to back fill seats on the return flights to America.
As for utilization, summers in Europe are the norm for North Americans. London Gatwick could be a logical choice as slots for Heathrow are nowhere to be found. Paris Orly or Charles de Gaulle are viable as well as Rome. Amsterdam will be a tough nut, but B6 proved it had the gumption to get slots via agitation via the State Department and DOT. As for winter, Hawaii and South America are logical. Maybe some ski areas in Europe.
Also, charter work is not a dirty word. Travel agencies would appreciate a 200+ block of seats to Central or South America or Hawaii or Europe or Bowl games. The whole idea is to amortize capacity; an aircraft sitting idle on a tarmac sucks up precious capital and resources.
As I’ve stated before, the Next Three (B6, AS, & WN) will morph into full-service airlines. Alaska is the furthest along with its recent TALT & TPAC service. However, B6 & WN are right behind with lounges and TALT service. Each is a prime target for acquisition by the Big Three. If a move is made, it needs to be made in the next two years before the current administration is gone and the Democrats take over.
It would be nice to see the Next Three really do expand especially if WN and B6 eventually join Skyteam and Star Alliance respectively and going back to the era where each alliance had at least 2 American/ US airlines each.
Isn’t it crazy to think and remember that Skyteam once had Northwest, Delta and Continental and Star Alliance had United and US Airways?
Yes, this is the most likely base for any 787 service on WN. And, it could do okay locally. But I don't see people connecting though BWI from anywhere aside from maybe the southeast. Why not? Because it makes no sense unless the flights are so cheap as to not be profitable.
Where else could WN do European flights from? Maybe BNA if they're insistent oon dominating that area, though it would cannibalize much of the traffic connecting to Europe via BWI. On the whole, I agree with the other comment comparing this to JetBlue's Europe service, it will be a limited option for people from select bases of the airline. I do not see a lot of potential here for them to fill up many dreamliners across the pond.
Not sure I agree with your connecting logic. Lots of people fly the wrong way from secondary northeast airports to PHL/IAD/ATL onward to Europe. BWI works just fine.
Decent analysis, Exit Row Seat; though, I'm still skeptical that WN actually does any of this. They're most all-talk. Adding bag or seat fees is one thing; major capital expenditures is another.
If they did, agreed on BWI. I'd add MCO, PHX, and DEN (though, there are some altitude considerations there...) Conversely, MDW, HOU, and DAL really can't do 787, even a heavily restricted 788 might clear a short runway, won't have enough fuel for TATL or Hawaii, and can't fit easily on MDW's taxiways.
As far as destinations, sure, European hot-spots. And, not to be a total weeb, but Japan remains hot. If they can pull that off from, say, HNL, probably makes most sense.
Gotta say, I literally laughed-out-loud when I read you referring to B6 as a 'GDI'... And, nice prediction that the current administration won't be there forever (they seem to think they will.) Democrats may be in-favor of more competition, not less, so I'm not sure WN's plans here necessarily conflict with a new administration (seems like organic growth, not regulatory capture, anti-trust territory); that said, we'll see. Anything is possible. Perhaps routing some 787s on domestic routes (up-gauging) may be useful in certain circumstances. We'll see.
A 787 in the Southwest livery would be sharp.
I would think BWI and BNA and maybe even something like RDU. Not sure of the terminal/Customs set up for T1 at RDU.
A 788 in Southwest colors would be cool.
Depends, we talkin' Desert Gold (aka the Mustard Rocket), or whatever their new thing is?
Could see RDU, but I think a better "dark horse" might be St. Louis, which is pretty similar in overall traffic to RDU, but has a much bigger Southwest presence in place at the moment. And, Southwest already operates out of T2 there, where int'l arrivals from BA and LH are coming in, so it's already set up for customs.
The east coast is spoiled with all of its international destinations. Oh joy, yet another crap airport on the east coast gets non-stops to a different culture!! Can’t wait!
Let’s hope they think outside the box here.
As a MD-based traveler, I welcome this brave new world of BWI-FCO on a WN 788
An Alaska Southwest merger would make some sense here.
would be the perfect way for DL to get the rest of SEA; WN has a terrible track record of competing wiht the big 3, esp. DL.
"WN has a terrible track record of competing wiht the big 3, esp. DL."
Weird since Delta is the one, to date, that has retreated vs WN in every single focus city where WN started out larger.
Even in AUS, despite all the hubris and bravado from you, Tim, Delta has guaranteed a second place position to Southwest for decades. Great negotiating by Delta... permanent second place.
I'm sure you'll come back with "but Atlanta!"... yes. Delta's biggest monopoly hub with the Atlanta city council under the hub beat back Southwest with ~80% market share... great example 😉
more selective and ignorant handling of reality.
WN inherited an operation in ATL with hundreds of flights which has been reduced to a couple dozen flights. and, yes, ATL is a spectacular WN failure. what other directly competiive DL-WN hubs do you think there were?
and no one ever said that DL would overtake WN at AUS. DL is going for the best revenue.
It now has decided to go for int'l revenue which it can't fly from DAL and HOU.
It's a tough reality when you realize that you had the wrong strategy for years and the "hubs" you've built don't work for what you need to do now.
you do know that DAL is one of WN's lowest margin hubs?
you really can't stand that you can't have the internet all to yourself so you post the honestly dumbest things and then double down when you are shown to be blowing smoke up everyone's backside. Some of us are smarter than you, though
I wonder if SWA has enough traffic from the west coast/PHX/LV to up their flights to Hawaii to a 787? Or maybe they'll go for the Miami-Tokyo route?
I wonder whether they'd go Zipair style with "full flat" rather than a real business class.
Can’t wait to watch Southwest try to convince the FAA that the 737 and 787 should be a common type rating.
Wait. I was loving OMAAT again because Tim Dunn was banned so I thought.
Do believe PIA has first dibs on "previously owned" 787's from Norse Atlantic