Miami officials are pushing hard for a nonstop Tokyo flight, even floating revenue guarantees to lure American or Japan Airlines into launching the route.
while JAL is getting new aircraft. the a350-1000 is basically replacing all their 777-300er. so they wouldn't have any extra planes. JAL has 11/13 a350-1000 right now. and only need 2 more to go. when that happens the 777-300er will be all retired.
JAL has also ordered 20 internationally-configured A359's, which would be the perfect plane for a route like this.
Really hoping they get those last 2 before my April SFO-HND trip. Blows my mind that they haven't done JL 1 yet. Shoulda left DFW for the end, as there's no competition. Plenty of other options out of SFO.
The majority of the people going to/from Latin America and Japan are going to Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Peru. Brazil and Argentina can arguably served better through the Middle East or Europe- no transit visas required. Mexico is better served through the Texas hubs. In fact, the biggest Mexican markets that generate Japan and Asian traffic aren't served via Miami. Peru can work over Miami but it's just as easily served over Houston, LA, or even Australia/New Zealand, and a lot of traffic does go through Australia/New Zealand. So yes there's traffic to Latin America that can be served over Miami, but the biggest markets are already very well served.
Given that Japan - US travel remains relatively stable year round (2025 Feb low is only ~75% of the passenger in 2025 Aug high; compared to ~40% of same time periods for EU - US travel), this could be any interesting way for AA to place a wide body outside the typical summer peak. Especially if incentives are there and cargo demand (although I imagine likely some payload restrictions). Those traveling for business between Japan and Latin America are also more likely to already have or able to obtain US C or B-1 visas.
But like you said, not holding my breath on this materializing. Would bet AA launches another LHR from somewhere before this route.
"and I don’t think it’s any more likely than it was five years ago"
You're joking right? There has been significant growth in Miami the last 5 years in finance and tech, and an overall enormous influx of wealth.
In addition, as I'm sure you know, one of the countries most prestigious universities in the fields of AI, Robots, and Computer Science is opening a campus here in the next couple of years. How can you think this doesn't change the equation in a meaningful way?
What a treat for Ben, if it ever happens! All the years I lived in SoFla, I would’ve loved this (the one-stop itineraries were interesting; I recall connecting in ATL, taking DL’s old NW 744 to NRT.) Now based in NYC, I’m grateful for the multiple daily nonstops between NYC-TYO.
As someone from Miami now living in Singapore, this would make life a lot easier. With the uncertainty now around connecting in say Doha (for AAadvantage reasons), this would become the preferred link between Southeast Asia and Miami. Just food for thought also, one factor that’s made Qatar and Emirates do so well in Miami is cruise traffic, specially cruise crew traffic, particularly from the Philippines and Indonesia. If some of that traffic gets moved onto a JAL/AA flight to Miami, helps for the longevity of the flight too.
While I agree with your observation, JAL is quietly evaluating viability of Tokyo-Florida route with ZIPAir seasonal charter to Orlando. There seem to be limited but stable demands so ZIPAir will fly this on select days in Feb-Mar 2027.
Maybe Orlando gets direct regular Tokyo service ahead of Miami?
Zipair is a leisure based "budget" airline and Orlando is a good kind of destination for such an airline. While Toyko has a disney park, it's not WDW which remains popular with Japanses travelers.
Those limited MCO charters work because Disney subsidies and upfront tour-agency blocks absorb the cost of payload-restricting those high-density 788s against westbound headwinds. The real game-changer is the longer-range 789s coming in 2027, making East Coast expansion viable. I hope they target NYC next; JFK/EWR prices are often outrageous under the current legacy carrier monopoly, and a true LCC disruptor is badly needed.
Perhaps you forgot JL international 788 are low density to begin with (did you forget they are also the only 787 operator keep 2-4-2 in Y ?), it is 104 seats less than Zipair, so they don't need to block seat anyway, and it is just slightly longer than NRT-JFK, westbound flight is just 14 hours
Perhaps you forgot JL now uses 35K; it’s not because of operational viability, rather it’s because of ‘premium’ clientele between those two top-tier global cities.
just left from MCO the other day. on the service road to the airport all the signs tell you which terminal Zipair is at
Geographically, MIA is literally the worst sited international airport from which to serve an Asian route (or routes). While I understand that there may be some O&D travel between South Florida and Asia, is it enough to justify such a route? Probably not, though I'd imagine Miami-Dade officials should have access to these stats. If you need to get from Florida to Tokyo, you'd take a flight to any number of hubs from which you can connect to a direct flight. And pretty much any hub is "on the way" from Miami to Tokyo. So it doesn't make a lot of sense and seems to be more of a vanity project to me.
JAL is also incredibly conservative about expansion, perhaps still reflecting the post-bailout period when the Japanese government restricted both subsidies and new routes. Have we seen JAL take subsidies for other new routes since those restrictions were lifted in 2017 or so?
Cannot go that far nonstop . Needs 2 stops in SFO and ANC , or 3 stops incl. HNL . Duh .
Speaking of JAL, Zipair is launching YYZ to NRT flights, seems like they're really popping off.
I wonder if that's what could happen for MIA eventually, I don't see Florida getting JAL service, but leisure LCC service could work.
Florida is too low yielding. Even Miami, the wealthiest city, is still well below the income and GDP per capita of coastal cities. Demographically, not as much Asian concentration in Florida/Miami either.
On the other hand, Japan allows sterile transit. I know many people travelling between Asia and the US dislike intl-to-dom transits in the US. If you have a short transit time, you don't know how long immigration will take and if you miss the connection. If you have want to be safe, you might end up having too much transit time. Plus, US domestic flights are not as pleasant. Those in other parts of Asia may prefer Asia*-NRT/HND-MIA over Asia-US gateway-MIA.
*Excluding NRT/HND
If the City of Miami is going to chip in then maybe AA 3x-4x/weekly? As mentioned, maybe Zipair?
To be honest, I have no idea to be honest.
The one place i don't get that doesn't have trans Pacific service on the AA/JAL joint venture is PHL because of the east coast US connections
PHL punches below its weight in many ways.
Large population, but relatively poor compared to its neighbors in the Northeast. Doesn't have a particularly large Asian population. A lot of demand gets siphoned out via NYC and DC.
ORD is better for the East Coast connections.
I live in Miami. I have no idea of what the demand would be at least locally. I never see East Asians anywhere in Miami or the Tri County area. Maybe for connections to South America? I NEVER see Asian business men at MIA like I do in the lounges at ORD, LAX and SFO.
Japan already has a general consulate in Miami. 30% of Japanese Florida business are HQed in Miami, including Hisamitsu and Sompo Japan. They host regular Japan exchange programs and it is even a host city for Japanese language proficiency tests in the US. Miami is also a major tech hub. There is a reason Florida, and in particular Miami, is fighting hard for this route.
I don't think it can be emphasized enough how ridiculous this proposal is geographically. Take a look at a map of the US. Where is the absolute last place that you would want to put a non-stop from Asia? Right in the very southeast corner, way down at the end of a peninsula at that. As pointed out by others, this doesn't really work as a connecting point, either, compared to currently existing options.
Even then, there aren't enough cultural and business connections for this to make sense. And if Japanese tourists want sun, beach, and theme parks, you'd better believe the vast majority are going to Hawaii and/or California first before considering a flight to Florida, even if they can stomach the weak JPY/USD exchange rate.
I think there's room for another direct flight somewhere in the US Southeast (Houston and Atlanta alone probably aren't enough), but this is a non-starter.
The city wants to establish these business connections you are talking about - it says so right on the article. The map works out just fine -- it would be 2-3 hours shorter than the longest flights in the world right now.
I can only imagine the nightmare japanese airline employees would have worrying about maintaining their very high standards with MIA and related contractors as their partner.
Do we really think miami is capable ? hahaha. Go try their baggage claim, it’s fabulous !
people don't realize that Miami has a Japanese consulate and regular cargo flights from East Asia. i'm sure there's growing trade between florida and japan, too and a direct flight would only help develop those relationships.
Would it not be a option to perform this route in the form of a 5th freedom flight?
Why? Stopping where? Europe? There are a dozen one-stop connections that could already be made, there’s really no point in doing this as a 5th freedom route.